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## Topic outline

• ### General Information

Before attempting quizzes and assignments, please first watch the video clip. Sometimes, you may need to go over the video multiple times to understand all details. The courses are designed in a specific order. We recommended you follow it in that order.

At the end of the course, a certificate will automatically be generated. Good luck and enjoy your course!

• ### Introduction

In this topic, we see where fluctuations in arrivals come from.

Please download the Excel file and follow the instructions on how to proceed. Then, submit the Excel sheet through the online learning environment.

• Make a submission
• ### The Poisson distribution

In this topic, we continue the Excel demo and analyse the resulting distribution.

Please download the Excel file and follow the instructions on how to proceed. Then, submit the Excel sheet through the online learning environment.

Not available unless: The activity Introduction Clip is marked complete
• ### Working with the Poisson distribution

Please watch the clip on the Poisson distribution and do the quiz afterwards.
Not available unless: The activity Poisson Demo is marked complete
• ### Practical implications

In this topic we discuss the practical implications of the theory presented. Please watch the video and then make the final assignment.

Not available unless: You achieve higher than a certain score in Quiz (Poisson distribution)
• ### Final assignment

Download the Excel file and follow the instructions on how to proceed.
The file contains forecasts and actuals for a whole day at quarter level for 20 lines. Consider the following definitions:
•  forecast error = FCE = actual - forecast
•  percentage error = PE = FCE / actual
•  absolute percentage error = APE = absolute value of PE (i.e., without the minus sign)
•  mean absolute percentage error = MAPE = mean APE overall forecasted periods

1) Calculate the APE for the overall call volume

2) Calculate the MAPE for every line separately and all lines aggregated

3) Define which lines have a forecasting error based on the following rule of thumb:

• A line has a forecasting error if there are two consecutive periods with an error larger than twice the square root of the forecast
4) Using only the data until 09:00, define which lines have a forecasting error based on the following rule of thumb

• A line has a forecasting error if there are three consecutive periods with an error larger than the square root of the forecast in the same direction.

Lastly, submit the Excel sheet through the online learning environment.

Not available unless: The activity Implications Clip is marked complete
• ### Feedback and Certificate

To obtain this Certificate of Completion you must score 60% or higher on every assignment and quiz. The final assignment must be 80% or higher. You can retry every single topic as much as you would like. There is no limit in time or number of tries.
Before you move on to the next course, please give us feedback on this course!